– Canada expected to gain 12,000 jobs in March.
– Risk sentiment is slightly negative ahead of the Easter weekend.
– US dollar open price is mixed but little change from close.
USDCAD Snapshot: Open 1.3474-78, Overnight Range 1.3449-1.3488, Close 1.3457, WTI $80.34, Gold $2019.68
The Canadian dollar traded with a negative bias in a quiet overnight session. Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the March labor force survey this morning. Even if the unemployment rate rises to 5.1% from 5.0% in February, Canada is expected to gain 12,000 jobs.
Today’s employment results will need to rise significantly above expectations before analysts revise their expectations that the Bank of Canada will keep rates on hold at next week’s meeting.
The Canadian dollar is benefiting slightly this week from rising commodity prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 9.2% from Friday’s low to today’s New York level. The rally came as OPEC and Russia surprised the market by announcing production cuts of 1.6 million barrels per day from May 1.
Gold prices also soared. XAUUSD rose 3.5% from $1950.06 on Monday to $2021.28 today. The rally is driven by fears of a recession, demand for safe-haven assets, and sharp declines in US Treasury yields. Besides, central banks literally bought gold by the ton. Schiff Gold said central bank gold reserves increased by 52 tonnes in February, with China accounting for 24.9 tonnes.
EURUSD traded overnight in the 1.0986-1.0917 range, with 1.0903 in New York. Prices rose slightly after ECB Chief Economist Phillip Lane said a rate hike would be appropriate if expectations progressed smoothly by the May meeting.
GBPUSD drifted aimlessly in the 1.2439-1.2486 range. UK house prices rose slightly in March, but not significantly.
USDJPY was trading in the 130.79-131.49 range. Prices declined as the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.285% from 3.366% yesterday.
AUDUSD traded narrowly despite a negative bias in the 0.6689-0.6724 range. A mild risk-averse sentiment stemming from the meeting between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Taiwan’s President weighed on prices. Australia’s trade surplus increased to $13.8 billion in February.
NZDUSD fell from 0.6323 to 0.6281 at NY open hours due to take profit after rising on the RBNZ rate hike this week.
Challenger job cuts and weekly jobless claims data are ready.
Today’s US data includes Balance of Trade, ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI.
