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CBRE Again Boosts Hotel Forecast, Sees Rate Recovery in ’22

Thanks to better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, CBRE Hotels Research has once again upgraded its U.S. accommodation forecasts for 2022 and expects current occupancy, revenue per available room, and average daily rates all to match or exceed 2019 levels as soon as possible. . this year.

CBRE has predicted in its forecast before December 2021 that the ADR will reach 2019 levels in the second quarter of 2023.

The number of occupants in 2022 is currently 61.3%, an increase of 6.7% compared to the previous year and 5.3 percentage points lower than the level in 2019. This year’s RevPAR is forecast at $82.04, up 17.5% from 2021, which is within 95% of 2019 levels, about six months earlier than the previous forecast.

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The ADR is expected to reach $133.94 in 2022, a 10.1% increase over 2021. The rise is partly due to inflation. “Higher room rates will return more quickly to 2019’s nominal ADR levels,” said Rachael Rothman, CBRE’s head of hotel research and data analytics in a statement. and labor.”

CBRE expects inflation in the US from 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021 to hover just above 6% in 2022 and drop to around 2% after 2023.

Those most likely to be affected by inflation are essential travelers and budget-conscious travelers. In a statement, CBRE’s chief hotel economist Bram Gallagher noted that inflation could negatively affect economy ratings than luxury and luxury properties. Economy hotels are having the most trouble raising prices to keep up.”

Other factors, such as high gas prices and low supply growth, may be complicating, but do not unduly affect hotel recovery. CBRE expects hotel supply to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 1.2% over the next five years, well below the industry’s long-term historical average of 1.8%.

Related: CBRE’s December 2021 US Hotel Outlook

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